Macro opportunities map scored geopolitical events into candidate Polymarket market families and operator checks.
| event_title | regime | impact_score | source_label | source_quality | market_family | search_query | confidence | required_checks | event_url |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Fury Targets Global Network Fueling Iran’s Oil Trade and Shadow Fleet | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.91 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0472 |
| Treasury Sanctions Cambodian Senator Kok An and Scam Center Network Defrauding Americans | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.91 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0469 |
| Treasury Sanctions Global Illicit Drug Supply Chain Supporting the Sinaloa Cartel | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.91 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0468 |
| Economic Fury Targets Iranian Missile and UAV Procurement Networks | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.91 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0465 |
| Economic Fury Targets Global Network Fueling Iran’s Oil Trade and Shadow Fleet | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | trade-war-china | Trump tariffs | 0.89 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0472 |
| Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council April 24, 2026, 17:20 2026-04-24 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia The Kremlin, Moscow | crypto_policy | 0.54 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.87 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79608 |
| Iran’s FM meets Pakistani Prime Minister in Islamabad discusses bilateral ties regional developments | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/NewsView/786840 |
| Iran’s Foreign Minister meets Pakistan army chief discusses ceasefire regional stability | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/NewsView/786839 |
| Irans Foreign Minister travels to Pakistan Oman and Russia | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/NewsView/786805 |
| Iran Foreign Minister holds telephone talks with Pakistani officials | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/NewsView/786802 |
| Iran rejects claims made by Arab League foreign ministers about Iran | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/786800 |
| Iran strongly condemns breach of ceasefire continued military aggression of Zionist regime against Lebanon | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/786799 |
| Iran strongly condemns the crimes of the Zionist regime in occupied Palestine. | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/786798 |
| Iran reaffirms readiness to defend against any hostility or threat | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/786682 |
| Kurdistan Region President holds telephone conversation with Iran’s Foreign Minister | monitor_only | 0.44 | Iran MFA News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://en.mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/786803 |
| Visit to the Zhirinovsky. Continuation. LDPR exhibition April 24, 2026, 16:05 2026-04-24 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia Moscow | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79607 |
| Message to participants in commemorative events dedicated to the 111th anniversary of the Armenian genocide April 24, 2026, 11:00 2026-04-24 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79606 |
| Meeting with President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov April 23, 2026, 17:45 2026-04-23 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia The Kremlin, Moscow | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79602 |
| Meeting with Government members April 23, 2026, 16:30 2026-04-24 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia The Kremlin, Moscow | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79600 |
| Greetings to the conference Russia’s Demographic Turnaround: Approaches and Measures April 23, 2026, 10:30 2026-04-23 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79599 |
| Ceremony to present state decorations April 22, 2026, 20:20 2026-04-23 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia The Kremlin, Moscow | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79596 |
| Russia-Seychelles talks April 22, 2026, 15:50 2026-04-22 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia The Kremlin, Moscow | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79594 |
| Greetings on the opening of 2nd Russian-African International Conference on Combatting Infectious Diseases April 22, 2026, 12:00 2026-04-22 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79590 |
| Greetings on the 160th anniversary of the notarial system in Russia April 22, 2026, 10:00 2026-04-22 Team of the Official Website of the President of Russia | monitor_only | 0.44 | Kremlin Presidential News | primary-ish | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.86 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79589 |
| Economic Fury Targets Global Network Fueling Iran’s Oil Trade and Shadow Fleet | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | russia-ukraine | Trump Ukraine | 0.85 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0472 |
| Treasury Sanctions Cambodian Senator Kok An and Scam Center Network Defrauding Americans | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | russia-ukraine | Trump Ukraine | 0.85 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0469 |
| Treasury Sanctions Global Illicit Drug Supply Chain Supporting the Sinaloa Cartel | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | russia-ukraine | Trump Ukraine | 0.85 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0468 |
| Economic Fury Targets Iranian Missile and UAV Procurement Networks | monitor_only | 0.44 | US Treasury Press Releases | primary | russia-ukraine | Trump Ukraine | 0.85 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0465 |
| Trump officials whisper that his Truth Social posts about Iran risk killing peace talks - Fortune | breaking_geopolitics | 0.77 | Google News — Trump Truth Social | secondary | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.83 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOMFB1aklzdml4MXc1TlpDOUhtVGcwU0hKQ1lIUnNtOURxa21PXzlRTi1zSFZqWFFMT0ZlcFZ2MVBKVzNFN0JPMHc3WnQ1SkZtUVZ6VWlKU3BZMVFHcExwcm5GeTh6Sm9PUHo1aDhWUlpmcGxDbEdObmxpSjB5Q3BBaVMzRkdPSnJYcGRLNzB1Yw?oc=5 |
| Trump’s Truth Social Posts Upended Iran War Negotiations — Report - Truthout | breaking_geopolitics | 0.77 | Google News — Trump Truth Social | secondary | iran-middle-east | Trump Iran | 0.83 | source quality, timestamp freshness, already-priced risk, related-market confirmation | https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimAFBVV95cUxORVlncV83VGRKQXVVRlV0UEVBTU9vNTVlc2tqdm9DMFJiQkRKM0p5MFBGMlpqNktUaUlkQ0JTSkh3bGJfUHZHM1F5d2prVmdXNUtMZTlNTlZYNFdmVHVLaklFTHlLMlRwdFFSVVNfMDVNOUpVbTN4NVkxbEFvVlB3clhETzBQdGNWTV96dVJTT2J1VXpoY0NwTQ?oc=5 |